Posts Tagged ‘iSuppli’

The Week In Review: Oct. 1

Monday, October 1st, 2012

By Mark LaPedus

IC makers have been looking at the electric vehicle industry for growth. So whatever happened to the electric car? Toyota has scaled back the sales targets for its electric car. According to Lux Research, the head of Toyota’s vehicle development gave a vote of no confidence for the technology, by saying the “capabilities of electric vehicles do not meet society’s needs.” Meanwhile, Tesla Motors recently lowered its sales targets. Another car maker, Nissan, is offering big discounts on the Leaf because of slow sales. GM’s Chevy Volt has struggled to win customers, even though it’s not purely electric. And Fisker Automotive, which uses the same approach as Chevy, has experienced an assortment of problems.

At the 2012 IEEE International Electron Devices Meeting (IEDM), slated for Dec. 10-12 in San Francisco, Applied Materials and Synopsys are expected to submit a paper entitled, “Is strain engineering scalable in FinFET era? Teaching the old dog some new tricks.” “Strain technology has been a key enabler for improving transistor performance in the past decade. With the industry moving toward a 3-D FinFET structure from a planar MOSFET, the corresponding implications on stressor design needs to be analyzed afresh due to strong orientation dependence of stress enhancements,” according to the IEDM abstract from the companies. “In this work we have tried to address both issues; stressor design for FinFETs and scalability of corresponding stress enhancements. We found that the S/D epi remains an effective and scalable source of strain engineering for FinFETs. Contact and gate metals provide new knobs for engineering strain in FinFETs and remain effective with conservative scaling of contact/gate CD.”

Altatech, a subsidiary of Soitec, has introduced a multi-chamber chemical vapor deposition (CVD) system that enables photovoltaic (PV) cell manufacturers to develop and optimize their solar cell designs using advanced thin-film deposition of amorphous silicon and other materials. By performing all deposition processes within a single system, the new AltaCVD Solarlab tool reduces cycle times and materials consumption in fabricating advanced single-junction, tandem-junction and triple-junction PV cells.

GlobalFoundries is preparing to build a three-story, 565,000-square-foot manufacturing research center, according to a report.

While over-capacity continues to plague the global solar industry, the Taiwan PV industry is operating at high-capacity, according to SEMI.

SVTC Technologies is struggling and has apparently cut workers, according to reports, which added that the R&D foundry is mulling plans to close its sites in Austin, Texas and San Jose.  Multiple sources say SVTC may completely shut down. In an e-mail, SVTC declined to comment on the reports. A spokesman for Oak Hill Capital declined to comment. Oak Hill is an investor in SVTC. In 2007, Cypress sold its R&D fab unit to Oak Hill and Tallwood Venture for approximately $53 million. SVTC became a “lab-to-fab” facility aimed at third-party engineering groups.

As it turns out, Tezzaron Semiconductor has signed a contract to purchase the assets of a semiconductor technology development and wafer fabrication facility in Austin, Texas, previously run by SVTC. Tezzaron will continue the operations of this facility while adding capabilities to assemble its own 3D devices.

Struggling Renesas has obtained a $6 billion bailout from various banks. The chipmaker announced the execution of an agreement of a syndicate loan, with Mizuho, The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank and Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking Corporation.

Sharp has obtained a syndicated loan as it struggles to find investors.

For its 2012 fiscal year, Micron reported a net loss of $1.03 billion. C.J. Muse, an analyst with Barclays, said: “While Micron was hesitant to provide any speculative commentary around the potential Elpida acquisition, management did note that the deal is expected to close in [the first half of calendar year 2013].”

The JEDEC Solid State Technology Association has announced the initial publication of its Synchronous DDR4 standard.

Intel and its OEM partners unveiled the first wave of new tablets and tablet convertible designs based on Intel processors, including the new Atom Z2760, formerly codenamed “Clover Trail.”

Samsung’s foundry business has been selected by STMicroelectronics to provide it with products at the 32/28nm process node.

X-Fab plans to invest more than $50 million in its MEMS operations over the next three years.

Diodes plans to acquire Power Analog Microelectronics.

Gartner says Windows 8 is a big gamble Microsoft must make to stay relevant.

IC Insights believes that the more profitable foundries will be those that keep at the leading-edge of the process technology roadmap.

The average amount of DRAM in each smartphone shipped worldwide is expected to surge by nearly 50 percent this year, according to iSuppli.

The Week In Review: Aug. 27

Monday, August 27th, 2012

By Mark LaPedus

SEMI announced the introduction of 450 Central, a web-based information service to help the semiconductor industry efficiently transition to 450mm-ready solutions.

Samsung has taken a 3 percent stake in ASML in a move to accelerate the development of 450mm fabs and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography. Intel in July entered into a series of agreements with ASML in a combined deal worth up to $4.1 billion. TSMC also invested in ASML for similar reasons.

Big data, 3D printing, activity streams, Internet TV, Near Field Communication (NFC) payment, cloud computing and media tablets are some of the fastest-moving technologies identified in Gartner’s 2012 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies.

GlobalFoundries is projected to surpass UMC as the world’s second-largest foundry vendor, according to IC Insights.

Mentor Graphics has announced that Denso has adopted its ICanalyst tool. Mentor also said that iD has selected its Questa CDC for clock domain crossing verification.

Qualcomm has acquired cell-phone chip maker DesignArt Networks.

International Rectifier has announced its results. IR plans to close its El Segundo, California, fabrication facility. The company is also downsizing its fab in Newport, Wales.

ON Semiconductor plans to cut about 250 jobs.

The hybrid product line from Cirrus Logic’s Apex Precision Power business unit has been sold for $26 million to a group of private investors led by Alerion Capital. In doing so, Apex Microtechnology, which Cirrus Logic acquired in 2007, has been re-established as a stand-alone corporation.

A technology roadmap for the PV industry is set to emerge during 2013, bringing the PV industry into alignment with adjacent technology sectors where roadmaps typically have broad industry support, according to Solarbuzz.

Slow growth in the gallium arsenide (GaAs) device market in 2011, coupled with a shift away from GaAs technology for handset switches, dropped demand for semi-insulating GaAs bulk substrates by 4 percent, according to a firm.

Healthy growth in information technology (IT) spending in China will stimulate adoption of technologies, including desktop and server virtualization, software, and media tablets, according to Gartner.

LG Display more than doubled its tablet display sales revenue in the second quarter compared to the first, thanks to panel shipments for Apple Inc.’s iPad, according to iSuppli.

Global semiconductor revenue now is expected to decline slightly for the year, contracting by 0.1 percent, according to preliminary results from iSuppli. The previous forecast called for marginal growth of less than 3 percent. This will mark the first annual decline for the global semiconductor industry since 2009.

The Week In Review: Aug. 6

Monday, August 6th, 2012

By Mark LaPedus

ASML Holding announced that TSMC has joined its customer co-investment program. TSMC has taken a 5% stake in ASML. C. J. Muse, an analyst at Barclays, said: ”TSMC and ASML announced that TSMC will join Intel in ASML’s co-investment program, which is aimed at accelerating the development of both 450mm manufacturing and EUV (extreme ultraviolet) lithography. We had expected TSMC to join the program, as it seemed unlikely they would want to leave their biggest competitor in Intel as the sole participant in such a key program.”

Synopsys’ move to acquire Ciranova and SpringSoft will expand its efforts in the custom design and verification markets.

The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) announced that worldwide sales of semiconductors reached $24.38 billion for the month of June 2012, a slight decrease of 0.1 percent from the prior month when sales were $24.40 billion. Based on the SIA figures, “semis now look to be tracking down -2% to -8% year-over-year depending on demand in the month of September,” said Muse from Barclays. “Given continued macro concerns, most of the commentary from semiconductor vendors continues to suggest a more modest recovery than what many had been modeling at the outset of the year.”

The Committee of High-purity Silicon, a wafer industry body whose membership comprises major wafer manufacturers in Japan, sees mixed growth in polycrystalline silicon production, according to Semiconductor Portal Inc., a Web site in Japan.

A record-setting quarter for Apple’s iPad led to a better-than-anticipated Q2 for the tablet market, according to International Data Corporation.

Samsung regained the smartphone lead over Apple, according to iSuppli.

Looking at the Q2 sales ranking for branded NAND flash manufacturers, Samsung remained in first place with $1.788 billion, or 42.4% market share, according to DRAMeXchange.

DRAMeXchange said due to a supply glut, prices of DRAMs are expected to fall in August after a decline of more than 7 percent in July.

Wireless applications will prove to be the saving grace of the global semiconductor market in 2012, according to iSuppli.

Strategy Analytics predicts a surprising 11.5% growth in automotive semiconductor demand for 2012.

According to Databeans, sales in the global medical semiconductor market should remain nearly flat from 2011 to 2012.

Mazda selected Mentor Graphics’ Volcano Network Architect (VNA) software to verify its network bandwidth usage.

The Week In Review: July 30

Monday, July 30th, 2012

By Mark LaPedus
Apple, the world’s largest chip buyer, this year is expected to procure nearly $28 billion worth of semiconductors, up 15% from $24 billion in 2011, according to iSuppli. Apple is set to expand its lead in global chip purchasing in 2013, with growth of 12.3%.

Apple posted mixed results. “Our most recent checks confirm a lull in Apple’s iPhone production in 2Q12, down roughly 22% sequentially toward 29 million units,” said Craig Berger, an analyst with FBR. “Checks suggest Apple securing monthly iPhone 5 production capacity of 18 million to 20 million units, well ahead of Street sales estimates.”

Apple has also acquired fingerprint security company AuthenTec for $356 million.

SEMI reported that more than 60% of semiconductor equipment and materials companies say IP challenges have had an adverse impact on their companies.

GlobalFoundries is moving forward with the final construction for the extension of Module 1 at its Fab 8 campus in New York.

Rambus and GlobalFoundries disclosed the results from their collaboration on two separate memory architecture-based silicon test chips at 28nm.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSMC) and ARM announced a multi-year agreement extending their collaboration beyond 20nm to deliver ARM processors on finFET transistors.

Rohm has taken a step in the foundry business. Under an agreement, the Japanese company will manufacture FRAMs for Ramtron.

Korean foundry vendor Dongbu HiTek has been certified to implement high-reliability ICs per the MIL-PRF-38535 standard.

Toshiba will cut production by 30% within its NAND flash memory fab in Japan amid a downturn in the sector.

Micron Technology’s recent purchase of bankrupt Japanese entity Elpida is a risk, according to iSuppli.

IC Insights forecasts the automotive IC market will grow 8% to $19.6 billion in 2012, up from $18.2 billion in 2011.

Samsung maintained its LCD TV leadership amid dismal market conditions.

Synopsys has completed the acquisition of Ciranova, a privately held electronic design automation (EDA) company.

Chip Forecast Gloomy Despite Tablet PC Boom

Tuesday, November 29th, 2011

By Mark Lapedus, SemiMD senior editor

Not long ago, the IC industry looked promising for 2011 and beyond. Demand for smartphones, tablets and other products were robust.  And consumer confidence was relatively high.

While the tablet PC market continues to surge, lackluster demand and bloating inventories for DRAMs and other chips have spoiled the party. Plus, the economic woes, coupled with the recent and natural disasters in Japan and Thailand, have put a damper on the overall market. Most recently, the flooding in Thailand has hit the disk drive supply chain.

For that reason and others, the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) group has lowered its IC forecast. In June, the WSTS forecasted the semiconductor market would grow by 7.6 percent to $338.4 billion in 2012, following an estimated 5.4 percent increase to $314.4 billion in 2011. In 2010, the industry recovery — driven by enterprise and consumer spending — resulted in 31.8 percent growth, totaling $298.3 billion.

In the latest forecast, the WSTS expects the worldwide IC market to surpass $300 billion by the end of 2011 for the first time in semiconductor history.  The total revenue in 2011 is projected to be $302 billion.

Now for the bad news: This figure reflects a less-than-average growth of 1.3 percent over 2010. Looking forward, WSTS forecasts the worldwide semiconductor market will grow by 2.6 percent to $310 billion in 2012 followed by 5.8 percent growth to top $328 billion in 2013.

“In 2011, the semiconductor industry had to weather the slowdown of world economies from financial turmoil due to European debts concerns, clear declines of industrial and consumer confidence, as well as the supply chain disruptions by the earthquake disaster in Japan and recent flooding in Thailand,” according to the WSTS.

“For product category, an oversupply in PC/notebook DRAM results in a sharp decline in memory revenue, though the overall market is offset by healthy growth in microcontroller ICs, sensors and discrete semiconductor segments,’’ according to the WSTS.

It’s not all doom and gloom in the market. “Order activity remained relatively flat due to the Thanksgiving holiday week in the U.S.  Retail sales grew 9 percent higher than last year’s, which indicates that holiday demand is off to a good start,” according to VLSI Research Inc.  “However, a lot depends on whether consumers can maintain the momentum until the end of the year when discounts might not be as big.”

The research firm recently raised its IC forecast to 2.3 percent growth in 2011, compared to 2.1 percent in the previous forecast. The firm also cut its IC forecast to 4.5 percent growth in 2012, compared to 4.8 percent in the previous forecast.

VLSI recently cut its fab tool forecast to 9 percent growth in 2011, compared to 10 percent in the previous forecast. The firm has cut its fab tool forecast to minus 21.6 percent in 2012, compared to minus 20.5 percent in the previous forecast.

On the bright side, the meteoric growth of touch-screen tablet computers has become a major force in the large consumer market. In 2011, total personal computer units (including tablets) is forecast to climb to 414 million systems worldwide, which would be a 13 percent increase over 366 million in 2010, according to IC Insights Inc.

However, if tablet computers are excluded from the market total, PC unit shipments are expected to grow by only a little more than 1 percent in 2011 to 353 million systems compared to 349 million in 2010, according to the firm.

Worldwide purchases of touch-screen tablet computers are expected to increase at a CAGR of 81 percent between 2010 and 2015, while standard notebook PCs (including netbooks) are forecast to grow an annual average rate of slightly more than 7 percent in this time period, according to IC Insights.

“The sharp upswing in tablet sales is undercutting growth of standard PCs.  The look and feel of tablets, along with slick marketing campaigns by Apple and competitors, has convinced a growing number of consumers to buy touch-screen systems instead of new standard notebooks,” according to IC Insights.

Hans Mosesmann, an analyst with Raymond James & Associates, agreed, prompting him to reduce his estimates for Intel. “We are reducing our estimates for Intel on what we suspect will be muted unit trends related to the flooding in Thailand,” he said. “While IDC estimates that the PC unit shipments will only be hurt by a mere 70 bp in 2012, this analysis assumes that the shortage is resolved by 2Q ‘12 and that demand trends return to normal (or better) when sufficient supply is returned.”

Lackluster PC demand has hit the DRAM business.  “Note that spot DDR3 pricing is down 20 percent plus on average quarter to date, which is likely due to unwillingness from OEMs to purchase products given HDD supply concerns. That said, this has prompted a number of DRAM suppliers such as Elpida and Promos to reduce DRAM production capacity, and we suspect that at least 5 percent of industry capacity has come offline,” said Mosesmann.

“While this will likely not be enough to alleviate pricing pressure in the face of lukewarm demand coupled with flood-related industry supply issues, it does bode well for pricing dynamics longer term,” he said.

Gregory Wong, principal analyst at Forward Insights, a research firm, said the picture is different for NAND. “Demand is softening as the holiday build is pretty much done.  Next year demand will be remain good with ultrabooks driving demand along with smartphones and tablets. And SSDs will see an uptick due to the HDD shortages.  However capacity and technology migration output coming out this quarter into first half of next year will result in price declines into the first half of 2012,” Wong said.

Firms Lower IC Forecasts as Inventories Grow

Thursday, November 17th, 2011

It was a gloomy week. IHS iSuppli and Semiconductor Intelligence separately lowered their respective IC forecasts. Gartner has some bad news on the inventory front. And SEMI’s fab tool book-to-bill remains in the doldrums.

IHS iSuppli has reduced its global semiconductor market forecast for 2011. Global semiconductor revenue in 2011 now is expected to rise by 1.2 percent compared to 2010, according to a preliminary forecast. This is down from the previous IHS forecast of 2.9 percent issued in September.

The global semiconductor market managed to expand in the third quarter, with revenue rising by an estimated 3.5 percent compared to the second quarter. While down from the September forecast of 4.8 percent growth, revenue expansion during the period means that growth for the entire year has been salvaged.

“Although the forecast of 1.2 percent revenue growth in 2011 is just barely positive, an expansion of any magnitude is significant from the standpoint of market psychology,” said Dale Ford, senior vice president, electronics market intelligence for IHS.

“Given the worsening economic environment and growing pessimism in the electronics supply chain, many market forecasters had projected third-quarter revenues would decline, and pull down the results for the full year of 2011,” he said. “Even the prospect of marginal growth casts a much more optimistic light on the market performance for the year.”

Bill Jewell, president of Semiconductor Intelligence LLC, forecasts the semiconductor market will grow 3 percent in 2011 and 9 percent in 2012. This is one percentage point lower in each year from its August forecast.

“The outlook for the global semiconductor market in 2011 has deteriorated from earlier in the year due to multiple factors including slower than expected economic growth in the U.S., debt crises in Europe and the Japan earthquake and tsunami,’’ he said.

Another research firm, Gartner Inc., also issued more bad news. “The semiconductor industry entered 3Q11 with moderately high levels of inventory. As a result, and given weakening economic sentiment, semiconductor customers have begun reducing orders,’’ according to the firm.

“This is manifesting as weaker-than-expected sales by semiconductor vendors in 3Q11. Gartner expects that this weakness will continue into 4Q11, before production and sell-through return roughly to balance by early 2012. The inventory correction comes at a time when average selling prices (ASPs) are under pressure, with overcapacity in the foundry space expected to prolong this weakness. Hence, near-term sequential growth prospects for the semiconductor industry are relatively poor,’’ according to the firm.

On the fab tool front, North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted a book-to-bill ratio of 0.74 in October, according to SEMI. This compares to 0.71 in September. A book-to-bill of 0.74 means that $74 worth of orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month.

The three-month average of worldwide bookings in October 2011 was $939.4 million. The bookings figure is 1.4 percent more than the final September 2011 level of $926.5 million, and is 41.1 percent below the $1.59 billion in orders posted in October 2010.

The three-month average of worldwide billings in October 2011 was $1.27 billion. The billings figure is 3.6 percent less than the final September 2011 level of $1.31 billion, and is 22.0 percent less than the October 2010 billings level of $1.62 billion.

“The recent period’s billings and bookings reflect the slowing capital investment in the industry that has been evident throughout the year,” said Denny McGuirk, president and CEO of SEMI. “While overall spending has declined, investments in NAND flash, sub-30nm technology, and system LSI are on-going.”

Monthly Chip Sales Up Despite IC Slowdown

Monday, October 31st, 2011

By Mark LaPedus, SemiMD senior editor

A year ago, the IC industry was somewhat bullish about the prospects for 2011.

The demand picture looked strong and inventories were down. In November of 2010, the U.S. Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) projected that the overall IC industry would grow by a respectable 6 percent in 2011 and 3.4 percent in 2012.

A year later, it’s a gloomy picture. At the upcoming SIA dinner in San Jose, Calif. on Thursday (Nov. 3), the mood is expected to be somber amid lackluster demand and bulging inventories in the IC market. On top of that, many countries face tough economic times.

On Monday (Oct. 31), the SIA reported mixed IC sales figures for September. But unlike previous years, the SIA will not have its annual updated IC forecast this week, according to an SIA spokeswoman.

In any case, the silicon foundries see a slowdown right now. Last week, Samsung reported its results, in which its “semiconductor sales in Q3 increased 3.5 percent sequentially, but were down 6.6 percent from a year ago. Memory sales took another hit due to crashing DRAM prices — falling 6.6 percent sequentially and a whopping 27 percent from a year ago,” according to VLSI Research.

Samsung “did not comment on 2012 capex, but noted that the IC market has hit bottom and will rebound next year,” according to the report.

It’s not all doom and gloom. The SIA on Tuesday (Nov. 1) announced that it has updated overall quarter-over-quarter sales growth to 3.5 percent, previously misstated at 2.1 percent on Monday (Oct. 31). Additionally, Japan region quarter-over-quarter growth has been updated to 14.9 percent, previously misstated at 13.7 percent.

Worldwide sales of semiconductors were $25.8 billion for the month of September, an increase of 2.7 percent from the prior month when sales were $25.1 billion. All monthly sales numbers represent a three-month moving average.

SIA's Brian Toohey

“September’s global sales demonstrate an optimistic close to the third quarter,” said Brian Toohey, president of the SIA. “While global economic uncertainty creates limited visibility for the remainder of the year, recent positive indicators and developments in the U.S. and Europe are encouraging.”

C.J. Muse, an analyst with Barclays Capital, painted a mixed picture. “Trends on a month-over-month basis were relatively inline with historical averages for semis, but this was largely driven by strong ASPs (of plus) 15.3 percent month-over-month, while unit shipments of 5.6 percent were below,” Muse said.

“We point to pockets of growth in areas such as analog, memory, handsets, and enterprise networking with PC and distribution inventory dollars flattish and foundry sharply lower,” he said.

“Based on our calculations, we think semi inventory will decline by ~$900 million in 4Q11 or ~ 9 percent reduction. This, in turn, would bring us back to mid 2010 inventory levels – pretty good in our opinion,” he said. “So what to make of this? It all depends on end demand into the holidays and Chinese New Year.”

On the down side, the catastrophic flooding in Thailand is affecting the production of several key end products, electronic parts and subsystems — most notably automobiles, car components, cameras, analog and discrete semiconductors, and hard disk drives, according to IHS isuppli.

As a result of the flooding, the hard disk drive (HDD) industry in the fourth quarter will suffer its worst downturn in three years. HDD shipments in the fourth quarter will decline to 125 million units, down 27.7 percent from 173 million in the third quarter, according to the firm.

The drop is the largest sequential decrease on a percentage basis since the fourth quarter of 2008 when shipments fell 21.2 percent during the worst point of the last electronics downturn. IHS estimates that 30 percent of HDD production in the fourth quarter this year will be lost because of the disaster. This will result in a significant shortage of HDDs, according to the firm.

DRAM Market Sees Growth in Smartphones

Tuesday, October 18th, 2011

Shipments of DRAM for use in smartphones is set for triple-digit growth this year, outpacing the expansion of the entire DRAM market by a factor of three, according to IHS iSuppli.

DRAM shipments in smartphone handsets, as measured in 1 gigabit-equivalent units, are expected to rise to 1.7 billion in 2011, up 157.2 percent from 672.0 million in 2010, according to the firm. By 2015, shipments will increase to 13.9 billion units, up 700 percent from 2011, according to the firm.

Smartphones’ share of total DRAM consumption will grow to 7.6 percent this year, up from 4.4 percent in 2010. This will expand to 10.6 percent next year and then climb to 13.4 percent in 2013, 14.9 percent in 2014 and 16.0 percent in 2015, according to the firm.

Average DRAM density in smartphones is set to increase in the years to come. Projections call for the average smartphone DRAM density to reach 715MB next year, up 55 percent from 461MB in 2011, with no near-term limitations on growth.

Mobile DRAMs for smartphones are specialty DRAMs with low power features. These devices support faster processors, higher resolution displays and 3D graphics in high-end, next-generation mobile devices.

Vendors are now developing new LPDDR3 devices for good reason: Today’s mobile systems are expected to hit the bandwidth wall in the future, thereby requiring LPDDR3 or other next-generation memory technologies.

Samsung claims it has recently developed the industry’s first LPDDR3 (low power double-data-rate 3) device for the mobile DRAM market. Based on 30nm-class process technology, the monolithic, 4-gigabit (Gbit) LPDDR3 device is geared for mobile applications such as smartphones and tablet PCs, according to Samsung.

“DRAM usage in smartphones is rising at a rapid clip, as a result of high memory densities in these devices, along with ever-rising sales to consumers,” said Clifford Leimbach, analyst for memory demand forecasting at IHS.

“Compared to this year’s stunning DRAM growth in smartphones, a shipment expansion amounting to a much less spectacular 50 percent is expected for the total DRAM market, which is dominated by sales to the PC business,’’ he said. “The major growth disparity between the two sectors explains why DRAM manufacturers are aggressively vying for a bigger piece of the cellphone DRAM market. While DRAM also is used in devices like tablets and PCs, smartphones will continue to command an increasing portion of the DRAM market.”

Overall, however, DRAMs are mired in a slump. In total, DRAM capital spending is projected to hit $7.150 billion in 2011, down 41 percent over 2010, according to Barclays Capital. DRAM capital spending is projected to hit $6.689 billion in 2012, down 6 percent, according to Barclays Capital.

“For DRAM as a whole, we believe spending is unlikely to rise meaningfully from near-trough 2011 levels. We believe continued sluggish demand in PCs into 2012 coupled with minimal growth in bits per box is likely to drive DRAM bit demand growth in the low 40s in 2012, with potential downside to the high 30s,” said C.J. Muse, an analyst with Barclays.

“DRAM’s decline accelerated last week as traders cleared inventory on growing fears that demand in Q4 will be softer than expected, according to VLSI Research.

“The overall spot price-per-bit for DRAM fell 1.6 percent, following a 0.7 percent decline the previous week. Mainstream DDR3 led the decline with spot prices for 1-Gbit falling as much as 5 percent and those for 2-Gbit dropping nearly 3 percent,” according to the firm.

IHS iSuppli Lowers Semiconductor Forecast

Wednesday, September 21st, 2011

IHS iSuppli has cut its semiconductor revenue growth forecast for 2011.

The latest forecast predicts semiconductor revenue will rise by a mere 2.9 percent in 2011 to reach $313.3 billion, up from $304.5 billion in 2010. This compares to the previous forecast issued in August of 4.6 percent growth.

“Mounting economic weakness is taking its toll on the worldwide electronics and semiconductor industries just as these markets are entering the critical pre-holiday sales season,” said Dale Ford, vice president of electronics supply chain and semiconductors for IHS.

“While economic challenges have persisted into 2011, consumer spending could have still sustained a reasonable level of growth in electronics demand if conditions had remained reasonably stable,’’ he said.

“Unfortunately, the accelerating decline and instability of the economy has reasserted itself as the primary driver of tepid electronics and semiconductor revenue growth in 2011,’’ he said. “The continuing impact of a weakened and stagnant economy is expected to continue to drag on the semiconductor market in 2012, limiting revenue growth to 3.4 percent.”

Propelled by growth in smartphone and media tablet shipments, semiconductor revenue in the wireless market is expected to jump by 16.7 percent in 2011, according to the firm.

In spite of pressures on the notebook PC market by media tablets, expected mid-single-digit growth in PC shipments should enable semiconductor revenues in data processing markets also to expand in the low single-digit range, according to the firm.

NAND flash, image sensors, light-emitting diodes (LEDs) and other sensors are expected to achieve strong double-digit growth, while DRAM revenue is set to fall by more than 18 percent.

Others have also lower their IC forecasts. In comparison, Semico recently released its industry forecast outlook for the balance of 2011 and 2012. Semiconductor sales will end the year 1.6 percent lower than 2010, according to Semico.

The semiconductor market is on pace to have revenue total of $299 billion, a decline of 0.1 percent from 2010, according to Gartner Inc., a market research firm. This outlook is down from Gartner’s previous projection in the second quarter for 5.1 percent growth this year.

The deteriorating fundamentals in the silicon foundry arena, along with ongoing weakness in DRAM, have prompted VLSI Research to cut its worldwide chip forecast to 3 percent revenue growth in 2011, compared to its previous forecast of 8 percent.