IC Insights believes that the more profitable foundries will be those that keep at the leading-edge of the process technology roadmap.

In 2012, for example, the ≤45nm process foundry segment is expected to represent 30% of the total pure-play IC foundry revenue, up from 22% in 2011, according to the research firm.

With that in mind, GlobalFoundries is expected to have a greater percentage of its sales dedicated to ≤45nm technology than TSMC this year, according to IC Insights. But TSMC is forecast to have more than twice the sales volume at ≤45nm, as compared to GlobalFoundries in 2012, according to the firm, which estimated $6.23 billion for TSMC and $2.79 billion for GlobalFoundries.

Moreover, TSMC is forecast to have about $1.8 billion in sales of 28nm devices alone this year, up almost 10x from the $185 million worth of 28nm product the company sold in 2011, according to the firm.

In 2012, about 37% of TSMC’s revenue is expected to come from ≤45nm processing, compared to 65% for GlobalFoundries. For years, GlobalFoundries’ fabs have been producing AMD’s MPUs. So its processing technology is skewed toward leading-edge feature sizes.

Only 11% of UMC’s sales are forecast to be dedicated to ≤45nm technology this year, according to the firm.  Less than 1% of SMIC’s 2012 sales are expected to come from devices having ≤45nm feature sizes.

Older technologies, namely the >0.18-micron segments,  are forecast to account for only 13% of the pure-play foundry market in 2012, down one point from 2011 and two points from 2010, the firm said. Of the 14 pure-play foundries ranked 5th-18th, only four (TowerJazz, Grace/HHNEC, Dongbu, and Xinxin) are expected to be able to produce ICs using ≤90nm feature sizes in 2012, and this production is likely to be relatively limited.

Collectively, these 14 “non-major” IC foundries are forecast to account for $4.6 billion in sales, or about 15% of the total pure-play IC foundry market in 2012, it added.

Tags: AMD, Dongbu, foundry, GlobalFoundries, Grace/HHNEC, SMIC, TowerJazz, TSMC, UMC, Xinxin

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