By Mark LaPedus, SemiMD senior editor

The 450mm era recently celebrated its first milestone with the announcement of a new and major consortium. While the new group — dubbed the Global 450 Consortium or G450C — has gotten the ball rolling in 450mm, the fab tool community has suddenly raised its latest concern about the next-generation wafer size: It wants more participation in the group.

As reported, five major chip makers — Intel, IBM, GlobalFoundries, TSMC and Samsung — in September launched a new consortium in New York aimed at propelling the 450-mm wafer transition. The new group is part of a broad investment among the five chip makers over the next five years.

Today, the running theme in 450mm is not if the technology will happen, but when. But to help make 450mm happen in a timely fashion, Mike Splinter, chairman, chief executive and president of Applied Materials Inc., said the fab tool industry wants more participation in the G450C.

Needless to say, there are no fab tool vendors in the G450C. During a presentation at SEMI’s Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS) at Half Moon Bay, Calif., Splinter urged the industry to create a “forum” in order to “air out the issues” within the G450C.

The fab tool industry “needs representation in the group,” Splinter told SemiMD in a brief interview after the presentation. This in turn would ensure the two factions — the chip and semiconductor equipment industries — “are in lockstep” with each other in 450mm, he said.

He said that the industry trade group — SEMI — is in talks with the G450C to expand the cooperation between chip and fab tool groups. In other words, G. Dan Hutcheson, president of VLSI Research Inc., said the fab tool community would like to move the rhetoric from a “vendor-supplier” relationship to a true “partnership” in 450mm.

Dropping the ball

The industry would also like to avoid past mistakes. In the late 1990s, various chip makers announced plans to build 300mm fabs. The equipment vendors followed suit and developed 300mm tools. Then, the chip makers cancelled or pushed out their 300mm fabs, which caused anger — and losses — among fab tool vendors.

Over time, 300mm fabs were up and running, but the experience left a bad taste in tool vendors’ mouths. In more recent times, leading-edge chip makers, namely Intel, Samsung and TSMC, have pushed for the 450mm wafer size, saying it would provide a 2x to 2.5x productivity gain over 300mm.

At first, tool vendors balked, saying the return-on-investment was questionable, as only a handful of chip makers can afford 450mm fabs. The age-old problem for 450mm is also clear: Who will pay for tool R&D?

Seeking to jumpstart the 450mm efforts, five chip makers in September started the G450C. The G450C demonstration line, to be located in Albany, N.Y., is targeted for 14nm design rules early 2013.

At the same time, there have been some orders for select 450mm gear. So far, however, the industry has spent $500 million on equipment R&D for 450mm, but some $7.6 billion more is needed to finish the work before 2020, Hutcheson warned during a panel discussion at ISS. The other problem is that equipment industry funding has been flat since 2000. “If we assume equipment industry funding will continue to flat line, we have a problem,” he said.

There is also a disconnect between tool vendors and the chip community. For example, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSMC) says it wants a 450mm pilot line by 2013 or so, but one critical tool vendor — ASML Holding NV — won’t devise a lithography system for the technology for 450mm until 2016, he added.

Others also want 450mm sooner than later. “I hope we can do (450mm) in ’14,” said John Chen, vice president of technology at graphics chip maker Nvidia Corp., during a panel discussion at ISS. “Without 450mm, it’s hard to get to 20nm.”

In reality, however, Steve Newberry, vice chairman of Lam Research Corp., believes that 450mm pilot lines will not appear until 2015 or 2016. Production will not occur until 2017, he said.

Still, one G450C member believes the industry is making good progress. The formation of the consortium “is an important milestone,” said Bob Bruck, vice president of Intel’s Technology and Manufacturing Group. “Does it clear the path to 450mm? No.”

Bruck said there are still a number of challenges, but he has been “delighted with the level of interest” and progress with 450mm within the tool community. “Over 95 percent of the (process) requirements have one or more activity developments” within the G450C, he told SemiMD at ISS.

Lithography is the missing piece in 450mm tool development, Bruck said, but he noted that “lithography solutions are in development.” For some time, ASML has stated it would like to finish its work with extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography on a 300mm platform before it tackles an EUV-based 450mm project — an event that has slowed overall 450mm development.

“ASML has started research projects” in 450mm, confirmed James Koonmen, senior vice president of ASML and general manager of its Brion unit, during a presentation at ISS. “ASML supports (a) 450 mm post-EUV transition.”

ASML also believes the industry must share in the R&D. “Pre-competitive R&D is a joint semiconductor industry responsibility,” Koonmen said.

There is also a preconceived notion that lithography will have an easier transition to 450mm just by developing a new wafer stage. “It’s not that simple,” said Kazuo Ushida, president of Nikon Corp.’s Precision Equipment Co., during a panel at ISS. Ushida indicated that a 450mm lithography system may require a “more sophisticated lens” and a “redesign in the optics” to accommodate the larger wafers size and exposures.

Regarding the economic issues for 450mm, Applied’s Splinter asked a key question: “How can we get a payback is the question?”

The industry spent $12 billion in terms of fab tool development costs for 300mm, but it took some 14 years to recover the investments. He estimated that the tool development costs for 450mm will run $15 billion to $20 billion, but the return-on-investment remains unclear.

Like many vendors, Applied is quietly developing undisclosed, 450mm tools in-house. The fab tool giant does not want to get burned in 450mm — much like vendors did in the early stages of the 300mm era. “We are trying to pace ourselves properly” in 450mm tool development, he added.

Tags: Applied, ASML, Intel, Lam, Nikon, Samsung, TSMC

This entry was posted on Tuesday, January 17th, 2012 at 9:48 pm and is filed under News Stories. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.