Analyst: August Semi Sales Were Weak
The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) said that worldwide sales of semiconductors were $25.03 billion for the month of August, a slight increase of 0.7 percent from the prior month when sales were $24.9 billion.
On a year-to-date basis sales grew 2.2 percent year-over-year, according to the SIA. All monthly sales numbers represent a three-month moving average.
“Sales in August were in large part driven by strong demand in tablets and PC’s,” said Brian Toohey, president of the SIA. “Growth in these areas is encouraging, however lower consumer and industrial demand across a wide range of products and markets is keeping overall sales lower than expected at this point.”
C.J. Muse, an analyst with Barclays Capital, said the SIA figures were weak in August. The “trends on a (month-over-month) basis were slightly worse relative to historical averages for semis excluding memory (revenue +3 percent month-over-month versus 10-year average of +6 percent month-over-month),” Muse said in a report.
“By category, memory was again the weakest link in August (but largely expected), particularly DRAM where revenues fell nearly 43 percent year-over-year, driven mostly by a collapse in pricing (-35 percent year-over-year). Analog was also below seasonal with revenue down 4 percent (year-over-year) with ASPs also -1.3 percent weaker (year-over-year). MPUs came in well above normal seasonality on a (year-over-year) basis driven mostly by higher pricing,’’ he said.
Previously, Muse projected that the overall IC market will grow 4 percent in 2011 and 6 percent to 8 percent in 2012. “Continued weak SIA data now suggests our 4 percent topline outlook for semis is a bit aggressive; assuming (approximate) flat 3Q for semis, (excluding) memory, followed by (approximate) 5 percent in 4Q, would suggest semi revenues closer to 2 percent in 2011,’’ Muse said. “We now point to semi revenues flat to up 4 percent in 2011.”
The deteriorating fundamentals in the silicon foundry arena, along with ongoing weakness in DRAM, have prompted VLSI Research to cut its worldwide chip forecast to 2.1 percent revenue growth in 2011, compared to its previous forecast of 3 percent. In 2012, the IC industry is expected to grow 4.8 percent, according to the firm.
In 2011, the IC equipment industry is expected to grow 10 percent, according to the firm. In 2012, the IC equipment industry is expected to fall 20.5 percent, according to the firm.
Tags: Semiconductor, SIA, VLSI Research