Transition to 450mm Equipment Remains Uncertain
By David Lammers
Semiconductor equipment executives participating in the Citi Technology Conference in New York earlier this week said development work on 450mm-capable equipment is picking up, but uncertainty continues over the timing of the transition.
Rick Hill, the CEO at Novellus Systems Inc., said he expects suppliers and semiconductor vendors to meet during the SEMI International Trade Partners Conference, set for Nov. 6-9 in Hawaii, to discuss funding mechanisms for 450mm R&D.
Intel, Samsung, and TSMC have said they would like to begin using the larger wafers in the middle of this decade, at the 14nm node or later.
Hill expressed skepticism about a fast transition to the larger wafer size. “First we have to have EUV before any transition to 450mm can occur. We can’t have an EUV tool with a throughput of six wafers per hour like we have now and expect it to be economically viable,” Hill said.
The Novellus CEO said he expects only three companies to make an early transition to 450mm. Since many companies will never build 450mm fabs, it will cause a divide among Novellus’s customer base, Hill said.
“Right now we are looking at the technology roadblocks,” he said, listing heavier wafers, uniform plasma densities, and electroplating as challenges. “For ECD, maintaining a uniform current, so we can plate at exactly the same thickness – putting down that 1000 Angstrom seed layer – promises to be a very difficult challenge,” he said.
George Davis, the chief financial officer at Applied Materials, said Applied “will ship some 450mm tools next year.” Applied will shift from relatively inexpensive design-related work going on now to 450mm tool building in the first half of 2012.
“We will start bending metal in 2012,” Davis said.
He reiterated a statement made during Semicon West, that Applied will invest slightly more than $100 million next year in 450mm equipment development.
Asked when the transition to the larger wafer diameter will begin, Davis said “it is very hard to call a consensus on when customers want 450mm equipment,” but added that Applied “wants to support our customers’ roadmaps.”
Asked if Applied sees the 450mm wafer transition as an opportunity to gain market share, Davis said the wafer transition is “a big enough inflection point that it does represent a share gain opportunity.”
Ernie Maddock, the chief financial officer at Lam Research, told the Citi conference participants that “there are opportunities for Lam Research at 450. Any time there is a major inflection point, we want to be very well positioned.”
(Source: IC Knowledge)
“We want to move with them,” Maddock said, referring to the companies committed to 450mm pilot lines. “It is a difficult challenge figuring out the timing. Some are saying they want it pulled in, others that they expect it to be pushed out. We want to go through a thoughtful process and think about the industry’s investment portfolio.”
All of the executives said their companies are spending more on R&D. Maddock said Lam is working with its customers on five major technology areas: through-silicon vias (TSVs), vertical NAND structures, 3D DRAM structures, 3D logic transistors, and the transition to 450mm wafers.
To some extent, investments in 450mm fabs depend on chip demand and the economic health of the semiconductor industry. Hill said Novellus believes overall demand for semiconductors is “fairly good.”
“Our customers are up one day, down the next. Nine months from now things might be different, but right now most don’t feel very good about things, so they tend to wait. It is not like 2009, when the industry was in a cash crisis. We are in a period of lack of confidence, not lack of demand,” Hill said.
Davis said the industry is in “one of those periods where there is a lot of volatility.” While some customers are putting orders on hold, few are cancelling, and many customers are hoping for a strong Christmas shopping season to spur demand for integrated circuits.
Tags: 3D stacking, 450-mm wafers, Applied Materials, Lam Research, Novellus Systems